Session 1A: Urgent Issues in Agriculture in Asia (Auditorium 1)

Crop damages of the 2022 floods in Pakistan: A spatial information assessment

Noriko Sato, Takashi Yamano; Murali Gumma (ICRISAT)

          Since 1950, ten floods claimed more than 400 lives each in Pakistan, including the latest one in 2022. At least 1,678 people died, including 555 children, because of the 2022 floods. This report uses high-resolution satellite images and provide detailed crop stress assessments at the district level. Satellite images over four periods from June to September 2022 were examined with crop growth models assisted with Artificial Intelligent (AI) algorithms. The September analysis identified that about 15% of the crop fields were modestly or severely damaged, which would lead to significant production losses. Cotton, rice, and sugarcane are among the most affected crops. The report discusses policy recommendations at the end.

JEL code/s: Q12

Rice harvest mechanization to reduce field burning in Pakistan: An impact evaluation

Takashi Yamano, Noriko Sato, Babur Wasim

          Open burning of crop residues emits large amounts of Greenhouse Gas, and burning of rice straw is a common practice in Punjab region in Pakistan. Use of rice harvesters can reduce straw burning because they can cut rice straws at the bottom, leaving short straws which can be easily ploughed into soils. This study uses a village-based randomized control trial to evaluate field demonstrations of rice harvesters to teach farmers about benefits of rice harvesters. The study found that the use of rice harvesters in treatment villages increased by 14 percentage points, while it only increased by 6.5 percentage points in control villages. The analysis found a significant impact of the demonstration on the use of rice harvesters and discusses costs and returns to the use of rice harvesters, compared with other options.

JEL code/s: Q12, Q18, Q53

Inflation and trade concerns in international rice markets: An economic modeling

Valerene Pede (IRRI), Harold Valera (IRRI) and Takashi Yamano

          Fertilizer is one of the primary inputs in rice production, especially for the high-yielding rice varieties. Natural gas is a major input used in fertilizer manufacturing. Due to export restrictions resulting from the current Russia-Ukraine war, increased natural gas prices have led to higher fertilizer prices and reduced supply on the world market. This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on the production area, yield, consumption, trade, farmgate and retail price of rice. Using the IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM), this study reveals a significant impact on food security and the livelihood of millions of rice farmers and consumers worldwide

JEL code/s: Q11, Q17, 18

Asia’s transition to net zero: Opportunities and challenges in agriculture

Architesh Panda (UNU) and Takashi Yamano

          Transitioning to net-zero world is regarded as the key step to keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, for which emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Agriculture plays a major role in CO2 and non-CO2 emissions and close to one-third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from food and agriculture and animal farming. Asia comprises 59.8% of the global population, 52% of global agricultural production and is responsible for 43.2% of global emissions originating from agricultural activities. Shifting towards net zero in Asian agriculture brings both important challenges and opportunities as it would impact the agriculture production, large farming dependent population, food security in the region while simultaneously aiming for drastic reduction of GHGs emissions. Any changes in the agricultural sector in Asia rests on the decisions of millions of marginal and vulnerable farming populations who already face a broad range of other socio-economic challenges. While many tools are available for farmers and governments in Asia and the Pacific countries to bring changes in the emission pathways in agricultural sector, there are many existing economic, political and institutional barriers towards cost-effective, efficient and resilient transition to a net-zero agriculture. This paper discusses some of the major opportunities and challenges involved in transitioning towards a net zero agriculture in the Asia and the Pacific region.

JEL Code/s: Q18