Session 2: COVID-19, Migration and Remittances
Moderator:
Alfredo Perdiguero




Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Migration and Remittances

Using a bilateral labor migration model, (GMig2) and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, we analyzed COVID-19’s effect on remittance inflows. The analysis assumes that the pandemic has reduced gross domestic product (GDP) growth through country-specific declines in tourist arrivals, domestic consumption, investment, and production, and increases in trade costs, as reported in in a recent ADB assessment.  If outbreak control and normalization takes about a year—with the pandemic effects on the economy halving in the last quarter of the year as containment efforts and re-opening takes effect—global remittances are expected to decline by $108.6 billion in 2020, equivalent to 18.3% of the global baseline remittances globally.

Author/s: James Villafuerte and Badri Narayanan
JEL codes: F22 F24, O12, J20, J61, I15, I18, C68